TheoLedger

A comp calculator and tier tracker that runs casino play and cruise offers through the same math-first EV logic OfferStack already applies to credit cards.

Problem

Every casino calculates theoretical value differently and won't publish the formula, so a player splitting time across Caesars, MGM, and Hard Rock has no consistent way to know whether a "free room" offer is worth the hours of play behind it, or whether one more trip closes the gap to the next tier. Hard Rock's Unity program now matches tiers across 200+ locations under one system, and Caesars is running four promotions at once through early September 2026. The tracking problem has gotten bigger while the tools for it stayed a personal spreadsheet, if that.

Target user

The Active Optimizer from STRATEGY.md §2: someone who already holds 5-15+ cards, reads r/churning and Doctor of Credit, and treats rewards as a system to run rather than a perk to enjoy. A subset of that persona also plays enough at casinos or cruise-line properties to receive host comps, and right now tracks theo and tier progress by memory or a personal spreadsheet, the same gap OfferStack already closed for credit card SUBs and portal stacking.

MVP scope

• ADT/comp estimator: bet size, hours played, and game-specific house edge produce an estimated theo, with a per-operator comp-back percentage override (30% default, the documented industry standard) since every operator's formula is proprietary
• Operator profile pack for Caesars, MGM, and Hard Rock/Unity: 2026 tier thresholds (Caesars Diamond at 15,000 credits; MGM Pearl/Gold/Platinum at 20,000/75,000/200,000) and documented cross-brand match paths, stored as a versioned JSON like the existing issuer-rules data pattern
• Session log: manual entry per trip (operator, game, average bet, hours) rolling up into year-to-date theo per operator, feeding the tier-progress view
• Trip verdict: cash value of a comped room or cruise berth against the theo required to earn it, mapped to worth it / marginal / pass, the same verdict structure as the existing Travel Redemption calculator
• Cross-brand match worksheet: enter a current tier at one operator, see documented match paths to sister brands, with a manual submitted/confirmed status field
• A responsible-gambling note on every screen that outputs a verdict, so the tool reads as EV math and not encouragement to play more

Monetization

None (internal tool). Ships free alongside the other four calculators, matching the free-tier scope in PROJECT_REQUIREMENTS.md §4.10. Multi-operator session history is a plausible later Pro-tier gate, the same lever OfferStack already uses on wallet card limits.

Why now

Hard Rock's Unity program is still the subject of active how-to guides in August 2026, walking players through cross-brand tier matching across its 200+ locations years after the old New Jersey "Wild Card Rewards" system was retired. Caesars alone is running four promotions in parallel (Heart of the Strip, Millionaire Maker, Hit the Road, and a Readers' Choice tie-in) through early September 2026. A player working Hard Rock, MGM, and Caesars in the same year is now tracking three tier systems and a cross-brand matching path between them by hand. PROJECT_REQUIREMENTS.md §4.1 already names this gap with a deferred /casino route covering tier status, comps, and ADT, and the one open backlog item that touches the space, LIF-048, is editorial content curation, not a calculator.

Risks & open questions

• Every operator's theo formula is proprietary and undocumented, so MVP estimates will drift from official host numbers. The tool needs to say so plainly instead of implying precision it doesn't have.
• Unclear how much of OfferStack's existing user base plays enough to receive comps versus just running credit card SUBs and portal stacking. This could serve a small slice of current users rather than open a new acquisition channel.
• Tier thresholds and comp percentages need yearly upkeep, and MGM's own rollover-credit promotion is explicitly framed as a one-year test rather than a standing policy, so the data needs the same maintenance cadence as the CPP pipeline, with nobody yet assigned to own it.
• A tool that outputs "worth it, play more" verdicts has to stay clearly on the EV-math side of the line, not read as a nudge toward more play.

Next step

Spike the ADT/comp estimator alone first, since it has no dependency on the operator-profile data-maintenance question. That tests whether the math is useful before committing to the tier-threshold packs.

Sources

• https://igamingnj.com/blog/unity-hard-rock-rewards-guide/ — August 2026 guide confirming Unity's cross-brand tier matching across 200+ Hard Rock locations
• https://www.caesars.com/myrewards/promotions — live promotions page (checked 2026-08-01) showing four concurrent Caesars campaigns running through September 2026
• https://urcomped.com/blog/details/4252593/how-to-calculate-your-adt-use-the-comp-calculator-tool — confirms theo calculations are proprietary per operator, the basis for the configurable comp-back percentage in the MVP
• D:/AI_Agents/Projects/Mikes_AI_Lab/Repos/Live_Apps/life-hacker/docs/PROJECT_REQUIREMENTS.md — §4.1 /casino route (deferred, major-brand-only comp strategy scope), §3 Active Optimizer persona
• D:/AI_Agents/Projects/Mikes_AI_Lab/Repos/Live_Apps/life-hacker/docs/EXECUTION_BACKLOG.md — confirms LIF-048 (casino/cruise content curation) is the only open item touching this space, and it's editorial-only
• D:/AI_Agents/Projects/Mikes_AI_Lab/Repos/Live_Apps/life-hacker/docs/VALUATION_FORMULA_SPEC.md — reused calculator design pattern (documented formula, configurable defaults, verdict logic)