1. Executive Summary

• Venezuela's twin earthquakes on June 24 have killed at least 2,295 people, with 680,000 children in need, as the government's weak disaster response fuels public anger and volunteer-led relief efforts.
• US-Iran hostilities flared again over the Strait of Hormuz, but indirect talks in Qatar produced agreement on a communication channel, keeping the fragile ceasefire alive.
• The US Supreme Court struck down Trump's bid to end birthright citizenship while simultaneously expanding presidential power in other rulings, capping a consequential term.
• Trump refused to renew the USMCA for 16 years, opting instead for annual reviews — a major blow to North American trade stability and a shift from his signature 2020 deal.
• The EU and China agreed to three months of trade consultations to address a €360 billion deficit, averting an immediate trade war but setting up high-stakes negotiations.
• Amnesty International accused Sudan's Rapid Support Forces of crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing in El Fasher, as the civil war continues to escalate.
• Pakistan launched airstrikes in Afghanistan killing 36 civilians, while the Afghan Taliban retaliated with cross-border strikes, dramatically escalating bilateral tensions.
• Andy Burnham, the UK's Labour leader-in-waiting, signalled a major shift in defence policy, proposing to fund military spending by cutting road projects — a politically risky gambit.
• A Ukrainian national was charged in Germany over the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline blasts, threatening Kyiv-Berlin relations at a critical juncture in the war.
• The first global UN scientific assessment of AI was released, warning that governance is failing to keep pace with the technology's rapid adoption by children and militaries.

2. Global Top Stories

Venezuela Earthquake Disaster: Death Toll Surpasses 2,295 as Rescue Efforts Continue

• Source: France 24 · link; The Guardian · link; NPR · link; UN News · link
• What happened: Twin earthquakes struck Venezuela's central-northern coast on June 24, devastating the La Guaira region and Caracas. The confirmed death toll has reached 2,295, with thousands injured and tens of thousands displaced. A two-year-old boy, Kleiber Moran, was rescued alive from rubble six days after the quakes. International rescue teams from 27 countries have deployed, but local volunteers have largely filled the gap left by a weak state response. Four police officers were arrested for allegedly looting cash from collapsed buildings.
• Why it matters: The disaster has hit a country already in deep political and economic crisis following the US-backed removal of its leader earlier this year. The government's inadequate response is eroding public trust and exposing the fragility of state institutions. With 680,000 children in need of assistance and food growing scarce, the humanitarian crisis is compounding Venezuela's existing collapse. The earthquakes also killed Venezuelans recently deported from the US, adding a diplomatic dimension.
• Outlook: The UN is coordinating a major humanitarian response, but recovery "is going to take time." Seven days of national mourning have been declared. The political aftershocks — including Vice President Delcy Rodríguez's weak handling of the crisis — could reshape Venezuela's fragile post-Maduro power structure.

US-Iran Talks in Qatar Yield Communication Channel, Ceasefire Holds

• Source: France 24 · link; Al Jazeera · link; The Guardian · link
• What happened: After a weekend of escalating strikes — Iran attacked Bahrain and Kuwait in response to US airstrikes — indirect US-Iran talks in Doha on Wednesday produced an agreement to establish a communication channel by Thursday to report and document violations of their initial memorandum of understanding. Trump claimed progress, while Iran confirmed the channel and noted that part of $6 billion in frozen assets would be used to buy needed goods. The talks came amid competing claims over control of the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran insisting on sole authority and Oman positioning itself as an alternative mediator.
• Why it matters: The Strait of Hormuz crisis has sent shockwaves through global energy markets and exposed the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire signed just weeks ago. The deliberately vague wording of the original memorandum has proven unable to withstand conflicting interpretations, particularly on the Lebanon ceasefire and Hormuz access. The crisis has also highlighted a Saudi-led axis (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, UAE) emerging as a potential winner from the Iran war.
• Outlook: The communication channel is a stopgap, not a breakthrough. The underlying disputes over Hormuz governance, Iranian nuclear capabilities, and regional influence remain unresolved. Trump has threatened that further escalation would ensure Iran "will no longer exist." The next weeks will test whether the channel can prevent miscalculation.

US Supreme Court Upholds Birthright Citizenship, Expands Presidential Power

• Source: BBC · link; Al Jazeera · link; France 24 · link
• What happened: On the final day of its term, the US Supreme Court ruled that children born in the US are citizens under the Constitution regardless of their parents' immigration status, dealing a major blow to Trump's immigration agenda. However, the same term saw the Court expand presidential power in other key rulings, including on the Federal Reserve's independence and campaign finance. The Court also declined to hear Trump's appeal in the E Jean Carroll defamation case, prompting Carroll's lawyers to demand payment of $5.8 million in damages.
• Why it matters: The birthright citizenship ruling is a landmark affirmation of the 14th Amendment and a significant check on executive power over immigration. Yet the broader pattern of the term — expanding presidential authority while rejecting specific Trump policies — creates a complex legal landscape. The campaign finance decision further empowers wealthy donors, while the Fed independence ruling protects a key economic institution from political interference.
• Outlook: Trump's financial disclosure revealing over $1 billion in crypto earnings has intensified conflict-of-interest criticism, which he dismissed by saying "everybody's profiting." The Carroll case now moves toward enforcement of the judgment. The Court's mixed record this term sets the stage for continued legal battles over executive power.

Trump Refuses to Renew USMCA, Opts for Annual Reviews

• Source: The Guardian · link; BBC · link; Al Jazeera · link; Foreign Policy · link
• What happened: The US refused to renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) for a full 16-year term, instead keeping the pact alive through annual reviews. The July 1 deadline for the three countries to jointly decide the deal's fate passed without a long-term commitment. The White House hopes annual reviews will curb the US trade deficit with Mexico and Canada.
• Why it matters: This is a dramatic reversal for Trump, who championed the USMCA as his signature trade achievement in 2020. The decision injects massive uncertainty into North American trade relations, affecting supply chains, investment decisions, and trilateral economic planning. Canada and Mexico now face the prospect of annual renegotiation, creating a permanent state of trade insecurity. The move also signals a broader US shift toward transactional, short-term trade arrangements.
• Outlook: Annual reviews will become high-stakes political events. Canada and Mexico will need to adjust their economic strategies to a world where the US can threaten withdrawal every year. The decision may accelerate efforts by both countries to diversify trade partners and reduce dependence on the US market.

EU and China Agree to Three Months of Trade Talks

• Source: The Guardian · link
• What happened: The EU and China agreed to enter three months of formal trade consultations to address the bloc's €360 billion annual trade deficit. In their first joint statement in seven years, both sides committed to making the bilateral relationship "more balanced." The talks aim to avert a trade war after weeks of threats and recriminations from Beijing over potential EU measures to curb Chinese imports.
• Why it matters: The EU-China trade imbalance is one of the largest in the world and a growing source of political tension. The talks represent a critical test of whether the EU can manage its economic relationship with China while maintaining alignment with US strategic interests. The outcome will affect global supply chains, particularly in green technology and manufacturing, where Chinese dominance is a concern.
• Outlook: The three-month window is tight. Key issues include Chinese overcapacity in solar panels, EVs, and steel, as well as EU demands for reciprocal market access. Failure could trigger retaliatory tariffs and a broader trade conflict that would further fragment global trade.

Amnesty International Accuses Sudan's RSF of Crimes Against Humanity in El Fasher

• Source: Al Jazeera · link; The Guardian · link; BBC · link
• What happened: Amnesty International released a report accusing Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of committing crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing during its campaign to capture El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur. The report documents murder, torture, rape, enslavement, and sexual slavery as part of a "widespread and systematic attack against civilians." The UN has previously said the attacks bore the hallmarks of genocide. Meanwhile, the RSF is now threatening El Obeid, a strategic city in North Kordofan.
• Why it matters: The findings add to mounting evidence of atrocities in Sudan's 14-month civil war, which has created one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. The RSF's advance on El Obeid threatens to expand the conflict further, putting half a million civilians at risk. The international community has been largely unable to stop the violence, with diplomatic efforts stalled.
• Outlook: The Amnesty report increases pressure for international action, including potential ICC investigations and sanctions. The UN has welcomed Sudan's extension of an aid corridor from Chad, but insecurity continues to hamper humanitarian access. The RSF's next moves toward El Obeid will be critical.

Pakistan Airstrikes in Afghanistan Kill 36 Civilians; Taliban Retaliate

• Source: The Guardian · link; BBC · link; UN News · link
• What happened: Pakistani airstrikes in three eastern Afghan provinces (Paktya, Paktika, Kunar) killed 36 civilians and wounded 163, according to Afghan officials. Pakistan said the strikes targeted a terrorist group responsible for a deadly attack in Karachi. The Afghan Taliban condemned the strikes as a "cowardly act of aggression" and launched retaliatory strikes on the border, including drone attacks. Pakistan's military said it shot down four rudimentary drones and warned of further response.
• Why it matters: This is the most serious cross-border escalation between the two countries since the Taliban returned to power in 2021. The violence threatens to open a new front of instability in a region already grappling with multiple crises. The Taliban's ability to launch drone attacks signals a growing military capability. The UN confirmed at least 28 civilian deaths and called for restraint.
• Outlook: The risk of further escalation is high. Both sides have domestic political incentives to appear strong. Pakistan faces internal militant threats it blames on Afghan soil, while the Taliban must respond to violations of Afghan sovereignty. International mediation efforts have so far failed.

UK Politics: Burnham Signals Major Defence Spending Shift as Labour Transition Begins

• Source: The Guardian · link; Foreign Policy · link
• What happened: Andy Burnham, the Labour leader-in-waiting, announced a defence investment plan that would fund military spending by cutting road projects — a "poisoned chalice" that has sparked fury among ministers and MPs. Defence Secretary Dan Jarvis defended Burnham as a "true patriot" who will provide the money needed for Britain's security. Meanwhile, the EU is pushing for a speedy post-Brexit deal with the UK after the transition of power, with British EU Minister Nick Thomas-Symonds traveling to Brussels for talks.
• Why it matters: Burnham's defence plan represents a major political gamble that will define his premiership. The trade-off between military readiness and domestic infrastructure is a classic dilemma, but the scale of proposed cuts to road projects has shocked even Labour MPs. The EU-UK relationship is also at a critical juncture, with agricultural and trade pacts needing to be finalized.
• Outlook: Burnham faces a confidence vote on his plan. The EU talks will test whether the new UK government can reset relations with Brussels. The Rochdale grooming gang case — where Burnham vowed to close a loophole preventing deportation of a convicted sex offender — adds further political pressure.

Nord Stream Blasts: Ukrainian Charged in Germany

• Source: BBC · link
• What happened: German prosecutors charged a Ukrainian national in connection with the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline explosions. Ukraine denies any involvement in the case, which has serious implications for its relationship with Germany — its second-largest military supporter after the US. The charges come at a critical moment in the war, as Ukraine faces renewed Russian offensives.
• Why it matters: The Nord Stream explosions have been one of the most consequential acts of sabotage in European history, severing a key energy link between Russia and Germany. If Ukrainian involvement is proven, it would severely damage Kyiv's standing in Berlin and potentially affect German military aid. The case also highlights the complex web of loyalties and operations surrounding the war.
• Outlook: The legal process will be closely watched in Berlin, Kyiv, and Moscow. Ukraine will work to contain the diplomatic damage. The case could also affect NATO discussions about alliance solidarity and the rules of engagement in hybrid warfare.

3. Regional Analysis

North America

• USMCA non-renewal: Trump's refusal to extend the North American trade pact for 16 years, opting for annual reviews, injects maximum uncertainty into trilateral trade relations. Canada and Mexico now face permanent renegotiation risk, which will chill investment and complicate supply-chain planning. The decision marks a dramatic reversal from Trump's 2020 celebration of the deal.
• Supreme Court term ends with mixed legacy: The Court upheld birthright citizenship (rejecting Trump's executive order) and protected Federal Reserve independence, but expanded presidential power and allowed greater campaign contributions from wealthy donors. The term's net effect is a more powerful presidency constrained on specific immigration policies.
• Trump's $1.4 billion crypto earnings spark ethics debate: The president's financial disclosure revealed massive income from family cryptocurrency ventures, which he defended by saying "everybody's profiting." The disclosure, combined with the lifting of export bans on Anthropic's AI models after "productive conversations" with the US government, raises questions about the intersection of presidential power and personal wealth.
• Democratic Socialists gain momentum in primaries: From New York to Colorado, Democratic Socialists of America candidates are riding a wave of pro-Palestinian activism and surging membership, reshaping the Democratic Party's internal dynamics ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Europe

• EU-China trade talks begin: The EU and China agreed to three months of consultations to address the €360 billion trade deficit, their first joint statement in seven years. The talks will test whether Europe can balance economic interests with strategic alignment with the US.
• EU imposes €3 duty on low-value imports: The bloc moved to curb competition from Chinese online retailers, following a similar US move. The levy targets the flood of cheap goods that have undercut European businesses.
• Nord Stream charges strain Germany-Ukraine relations: A Ukrainian national was charged in the 2022 pipeline sabotage, threatening Kyiv's relationship with its key European supporter. Ukraine denies involvement.
• Far-right embezzlement raids across Europe: EU prosecutors conducted searches in France and other countries over alleged misappropriation of EU funds by the defunct Identity and Democracy group, which included France's National Rally, Italy's League, and Germany's AfD.
• Hungarian spy ring targeted EU officials: A European Commission investigation found that Hungarian intelligence officers in Brussels conducted espionage operations against EU officials, with activities becoming "much more overt from 2015 onwards."
• Albania warned over Kushner-backed resort: MEPs warned that Albania's EU accession talks are at risk if the government proceeds with a €1.4 billion luxury resort backed by Jared Kushner on protected shorelines, violating EU environmental policy.
• Canada to join Eurovision in 2027: Canada became the first new participant since Australia in 2015, joining the European Broadcasting Union with the aim of Prime Minister Mark Carney, who allocated C$150 million for the purpose.

Russia & Ukraine

• Zelenskyy cuts Irish visit short due to intelligence warning: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy abruptly ended his visit to Ireland after intelligence warned of an impending massive Russian attack. The warning came during a press conference with his Irish counterpart on the first day of Ireland's European Council Presidency.
• Russian pessimism reaches 20-year high: Gallup polling shows that for the first time in two decades, over half of Russians express pessimism about the future, challenging the narrative of unified public support for the war. Economic sentiment is deteriorating despite state propaganda.
• Russia's fuel crisis deepens: Ukraine's extended campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is disrupting fuel supplies and military logistics, with shortages mounting in occupied Crimea. Analysis suggests this could pressure Putin toward negotiations.
• Explosion in Monaco targets Ukrainian tycoon: Ukrainian-born businessman Vadym Yermolaiev was reportedly injured in a suspected assassination attempt in Monaco. Kyiv had previously imposed sanctions on him.
• Fire breaks out in central Kyiv: An explosion during an air raid alert caused a fire in central Kyiv, with firefighters and ambulances rushing to the scene.

Middle East

• US-Iran talks produce communication channel: Indirect negotiations in Qatar yielded agreement on a hotline to report ceasefire violations, but the underlying disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian nuclear capabilities, and regional influence remain unresolved. Iran insists on sole authority over the waterway.
• Israel kills three Palestinians in Gaza despite ceasefire: An Israeli drone strike near a Gaza hospital and fuel station killed at least three people, highlighting the fragility of the ceasefire. The UN warned that expanding areas under Israeli control are placing civilians at greater risk.
• Israel's Hezbollah drone problem: Israeli military officials acknowledge they lack a solution to Hezbollah's drone capabilities, which have proven effective despite Israel's technological advantages.
• Psychological toll mounts in Lebanon: Displaced Lebanese face a void as war annihilates the physical and emotional anchors of their past and identity, with entire villages erased.
• US signs $1 lease for permanent embassy in West Jerusalem: The US and Israel signed a deal allocating land for a permanent US embassy, formalizing the Trump administration's recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital.
• Israeli opposition signals foreign policy continuity: Israeli opposition parties criticize Netanyahu's methods but cannot risk opposing his ends, suggesting policy continuity regardless of who leads.
• France strengthens ties with Oman amid Hormuz crisis: Sultan Haitham bin Tariq's state visit to Paris resulted in major contracts for French companies, as France positions itself as a mediator in the Gulf.
• Saudi-led axis emerges from Iran war: A new bloc including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and the UAE has emerged as a potential winner from the Iran conflict, reshaping Middle Eastern alliances.

Asia-Pacific

• Pakistan-Afghanistan border escalation: Pakistani airstrikes killed 36 civilians in Afghanistan, prompting Taliban retaliation with drone attacks. The UN confirmed civilian deaths and called for restraint. This is the most serious cross-border violence since 2021.
• Bangladesh signals shift toward China: Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's visit to Beijing announced a "new era" in ties, signaling a potential rebalancing away from India.
• China emerges as winner from Hormuz crisis: A report by Asia Group concluded that China weathered the energy shock better than any other Asian power, thanks to stockpiles and renewables, and now stands to gain from the global push for solar and EVs.
• China's tech rise reshapes space race: Beijing is pulling ahead in global research rankings and expanding space ambitions, positioning itself as a rival to the US.
• Small-plane crash tests China's security state: A private aircraft crashed into a tower in Beijing, raising questions about how it entered sensitive airspace. China has scrubbed visible traces of the incident.
• Chinese billionaire Guo Wengui sentenced to 30 years in US prison: The exiled tycoon was convicted of defrauding thousands of people out of over $1 billion.
• India's Muslim women face AI-powered abuse: A report highlights how AI is being weaponized to target India's Muslim women with online abuse and disinformation.
• Indonesia faces blackout crisis: Coal-rich Indonesia is struggling to keep the lights on, adding to President Prabowo's political challenges.
• Japan introduces joint custody law: The reform reshapes divorce debates, though questions remain about whether children's interests are truly central.

Africa

• Sudan: RSF accused of ethnic cleansing in El Fasher: Amnesty International's report documents crimes against humanity as the RSF continues its advance toward El Obeid, threatening half a million civilians. The UN warns of large-scale atrocities.
• South Africa: Anti-immigrant protests and violence: Mass anti-foreigner protests were held across the country, with at least four killed and tens of thousands fleeing for safety. Nigeria is seeking compensation for property abandoned by citizens fleeing South Africa.
• Niger: "Witch-hunt" against LGBTQ+ population: At least 40 people have been arrested under a new penal code, with fears of a resurgence of HIV/AIDS due to loss of access to PrEP drugs.
• Algeria holds parliamentary elections: The vote raises questions about whether it will spark new political momentum or cement the status quo, seven years after the Hirak protests.
• Cocoa price crash devastates West African farmers: Prices have plummeted by nearly 75% from 2024 peaks, dealing a financial blow to millions of farmers in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire.
• Ethiopia's debt breakthrough: Addis Ababa's debt relief process highlights divisions in the global financial system, with implications for other struggling African economies.

Latin America

• Venezuela earthquake catastrophe: The death toll has surpassed 2,295, with 680,000 children in need. The government's weak response has fueled public anger and volunteer-led relief efforts. Four police officers were arrested for looting. The disaster has exposed Vice President Delcy Rodríguez's weak grasp on power and could reshape Venezuela's political landscape.
• Bolivia declares state of emergency: President Paz declared a state of emergency after 50 days of protests against his policies, as the currency plummets and anger simmers.
• Cuba policy debate: Analysis suggests the US blockade is destroying Havana's chances of becoming stable and democratic, but the fallout from the Iran conflict and approaching US midterms may change Trump's calculations.

4. Great Power Competition

• China emerges as clear winner from the Iran-Hormuz crisis. A report by the Asia Group concludes that China, due to its strategic stockpiles and robust renewables industry, has weathered the global commodities shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure better than any other Asian power. Beijing is now positioned to gain from the accelerated global push for solar and electric vehicles, strengthening its economic and geopolitical standing relative to the US. The Guardian

• EU and China agree to three months of trade talks to avert a trade war. In their first joint statement in seven years, the two sides agreed to formal consultations aimed at making their bilateral relationship "more balanced." The talks address the bloc's €360 billion annual trade deficit with China, following weeks of threats from Beijing over potential EU measures to curb the flood of Chinese goods. The Guardian

• Bangladesh signals a strategic pivot with a high-level visit to China. Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's trip to Beijing saw the two countries announce a "new era" in ties, a move that carries significant implications for regional dynamics, particularly for India, which has traditionally viewed Bangladesh as within its sphere of influence. Foreign Policy

• Poland's successful navigation of the Trump White House offers a model for Europe. Analysis suggests Poland's strong personal ties and high defense spending have secured it a privileged position, but history warns that such luck may not hold forever, especially as the US renegotiates its transatlantic commitments. Foreign Policy

• The US-Canada defense industrial alliance is fraying. The Pentagon's unilateral suspension of the 86-year-old Canadian Permanent Joint Board on Defense, linked to Ottawa's failure to meet a 3.5% GDP defense spending target, signals a significant degradation in the bilateral security relationship. War on the Rocks

• India's strategic logic with the US remains sound despite political noise. An analysis argues that the emotionalism in Indian politics over Trump's policies obscures the enduring strategic logic of the US-India relationship, particularly as a counterweight to China. Foreign Policy

5. Military & Security

• US and Iran trade strikes, threatening the fragile interim peace agreement. Fresh hostilities erupted in the Gulf, with Iran launching drone and missile attacks against Bahrain and Kuwait in response to US airstrikes. President Trump threatened to annihilate Iran, while Tehran threatened a "complete halt" to talks. The escalation appears to stem from conflicting interpretations of the broadly worded US-Iran memorandum of understanding. The Guardian, The Guardian

• Ukrainian charged in Germany over Nord Stream pipeline blasts. A Ukrainian national has been charged in connection with the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines. Ukraine has denied any involvement, and the case could have serious implications for its relationship with Germany, a key military and financial backer. BBC

• Zelenskyy cuts short Irish visit after intelligence warns of a massive Russian attack. The Ukrainian president was forced to curtail his trip to Ireland, which coincided with the start of Ireland's European Council Presidency, after receiving intelligence about an imminent large-scale Russian offensive. Politico Europe

• Pakistan conducts airstrikes in Afghanistan, killing dozens of civilians. Pakistani airstrikes in three eastern Afghan provinces killed 36 civilians and wounded 163, according to Afghan officials. Pakistan stated the strikes targeted a terrorist group, while the Taliban condemned the "cowardly act of aggression." The Afghan Taliban subsequently launched strikes on the border with Pakistan. The Guardian, BBC

• Israel kills three Palestinians in Gaza despite the ceasefire agreement. An Israeli drone strike near a Gaza hospital and fuel station killed at least three people, according to the Wafa news agency. The incident underscores the fragility of the ceasefire and the continued expansion of areas under Israeli control. Al Jazeera

• Explosion in Monaco injures Ukrainian-born businessman in suspected assassination attempt. Vadym Yermolaiev, a Ukrainian-born businessman previously sanctioned by Kyiv, was reportedly injured in an explosion. Monaco's chief prosecutor stated the suspect acted alone and remains at large. Deutsche Welle, NPR

6. Global Economy

• The Iran war supercharges the global pivot to renewable energy. High oil and gas prices resulting from the conflict have made renewable energy and electric vehicles financially compelling and strategically necessary for energy security, accelerating adoption worldwide. NPR

• Strait of Hormuz re-opening is no quick fix for developing nations. A new UN report warns that while a gradual re-opening of the waterway would bring relief, developing countries will continue to grapple with increased food and fuel costs for some time. UN News

• Cocoa price crash devastates West African farmers. Cocoa prices have plummeted by nearly 75% from their 2024 peak, dealing a severe financial blow to millions of farmers in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, raising questions about the future of the sector. Deutsche Welle

• Rapid demand for AI datacentres in Australia could stoke inflation and crowd out housing. Transport for NSW and the Reserve Bank have warned that the booming datacentre sector is competing for scarce industrial land, pushing up prices and potentially overheating the economy. The Guardian

7. Sanctions & Trade Restrictions

• US blocks long-term renewal of the USMCA, opting for annual reviews. The Trump administration refused to renew the 16-year North American trade pact, instead keeping it on a "short leash" of annual reviews. This is a major blow to Canada and Mexico, creating significant trade uncertainty. The Guardian, BBC, Al Jazeera

• EU slaps a €3 duty on low-value imported packages. The new levy targets what the EU sees as unfair competition from mostly Chinese online retailers (e.g., Shein, Temu), following a similar move by the US. Deutsche Welle

• US lifts export ban on Anthropic's advanced AI tools. The US government reversed its suspension of Anthropic's Mythos 5 and Fable 5 AI models after "productive conversations" with the company, ending a brief but significant restriction on advanced AI exports. BBC, France 24

8. International Organizations

• EU prosecutors conduct raids over alleged far-right embezzlement. Searches were conducted in France and other countries into the alleged misappropriation of EU funds by the defunct far-right Identity and Democracy group in the European Parliament, which included France's National Rally and Italy's League. France 24

• MEPs blast FIFA over Russian participation in youth World Cup. European Parliament members criticized FIFA President Gianni Infantino for allowing Russian athletes to compete in the inaugural U-15 World Cup, seeing it as another step in Russia's return to global sporting events. Politico Europe

• UN Security Council holds open meeting on Israeli settlements. The council spotlighted Israeli settlement activities in occupied Palestinian territory, declared illegal under a decade-old resolution, with briefings from the UN Special Coordinator and civil society representatives. UN News

• Albania warned its EU accession is at risk over Kushner-backed resort plans. MEPs warned that the proposed €1.4 billion luxury resort development on protected shorelines violates EU environmental policy and could jeopardize Albania's EU accession talks. The Guardian

9. Elections & Political Risk

• Democratic Socialists ride a wave of momentum in US primaries. Surging membership and pro-Palestinian activism are reshaping the political landscape, with candidates like Zohran Mamdani gaining traction in New York and Colorado, signaling a potential shift in the Democratic Party's center of gravity. The Guardian

• Bolivia declares a state of emergency as the currency plummets. President Paz declared a state of emergency after 50 days of protests against his economic policies, as the boliviano's value collapses and public anger simmers. Al Jazeera

• France enters the final 300 days before its presidential election. The political landscape is described as "combustible," with judicial investigations, institutional distrust, and a fragmented party system. The dynamics are seen as favoring the far-right or far-left. France 24

• Algeria holds a parliamentary vote, raising questions about real change. Seven years after the pro-democracy Hirak protests, the election is seen as a test of whether it will spark new political momentum or cement the status quo under the current system. Deutsche Welle

10. Intelligence & Cyber

• Hungarian spy ring targeted EU officials in Brussels, a Commission investigation finds. The probe revealed that the activities of Hungarian intelligence officers in Brussels "were initially discreet but gradually became much more overt from 2015 onwards," marking a significant breach of trust within the EU. Politico Europe

• AI is being weaponised against India's Muslim women. A report highlights how deepfakes and AI-generated content are being used to target and abuse Muslim women online, representing a new frontier in information warfare and hate speech. Al Jazeera

• UN launches first global scientific assessment of AI. The UN chief welcomed the report, which provides fresh evidence and options for harnessing AI's opportunities while managing its risks, as the technology moves faster than governments can regulate. UN News

11. Humanitarian Crises

• Venezuela earthquake death toll rises to 2,295, with 680,000 children in need. One week after the twin earthquakes, the scale of the disaster is becoming clearer. The UN is coordinating a massive response, but needs are "skyrocketing" as food grows scarcer and key services remain crippled. France 24, UN News, UN News

• Amnesty International accuses Sudan's RSF of ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity in El Fasher. The report details a systematic campaign of murder, torture, rape, and sexual slavery against civilians, amounting to crimes against humanity. The UN warns that 500,000 civilians in El Obeid are at grave risk of large-scale atrocities. The Guardian, UN News

• Anti-immigrant violence and protests escalate in South Africa. More than 2,000 protesters marched in Durban, and at least four people have been killed in a weeks-long campaign against foreigners. Tens of thousands are fleeing for safety, and Nigeria is seeking compensation for property abandoned by its citizens. The Guardian, BBC

• Expanding Israeli control in Gaza increases risks to civilians, UN warns. The continued expansion of areas under Israeli control since the ceasefire is placing civilians at greater risk and severely constraining humanitarian operations. UN News

12. Emerging Flashpoints

• Pakistan-Afghanistan Border — Pakistani airstrikes killed dozens in Afghanistan, and the Afghan Taliban retaliated with strikes on the border. The situation is highly volatile, with both sides exchanging fire. Escalation probability: High — The risk of a full-scale border conflict is significant.
• Strait of Hormuz — The US and Iran traded strikes, threatening the fragile ceasefire. The dispute over control of the waterway remains the central point of contention. Escalation probability: High — The conflicting interpretations of the MoU make a return to open conflict a real possibility.
• Venezuela — The earthquake disaster has overwhelmed the state's capacity, leading to looting by police, widespread anger, and a reliance on volunteer-led relief efforts. Escalation probability: Medium — The humanitarian crisis could trigger political instability and social unrest.
• Sudan (El Obeid) — The RSF is besieging the strategic city, and drone attacks are causing civilian casualties. The UN warns of large-scale atrocities. Escalation probability: High — The fall of El Obeid would be a major strategic victory for the RSF and could lead to further massacres.
• Niger — A "witch-hunt" against the LGBTQ+ population is underway, with dozens arrested under a new penal code. Escalation probability: Low — While a serious human rights crisis, it is unlikely to trigger international military intervention.
• Greece — A Greek politician's mother died of wounds from an arson attack, and a deadly wildfire is burning near Thessaloniki. Escalation probability: Low — These are domestic security and environmental crises, not likely to become major geopolitical stories.
• Bolivia — A state of emergency has been declared amid a currency crisis and 50 days of protests. Escalation probability: Medium — The economic collapse could lead to a broader political crisis or a change in government.

13. Data Snapshot

Major Armed Conflicts

Major Elections

New Sanctions

Key Diplomatic Meetings

14. Timeline of the Week

• Monday, June 29 — Pakistan conducts airstrikes in Afghanistan, killing 36 civilians. The Afghan Taliban retaliate with strikes on the border. The US and Iran trade fresh strikes in the Gulf, threatening the ceasefire. Trump threatens to annihilate Iran.
• Tuesday, June 30 — The US Supreme Court upholds birthright citizenship in a major blow to Trump. Anti-immigrant protests are held across South Africa. A roof collapse at a tutoring center in Lahore, Pakistan, kills 14 children.
• Wednesday, July 1 — The US refuses to renew the USMCA, opting for annual reviews. The US and Iran conclude talks in Qatar, agreeing to set up a communication channel. Venezuela's earthquake death toll rises to 2,295. A fire breaks out in central Kyiv after an explosion during an air raid alert.

15. What to Watch Next Week

• US-Iran Communication Channel Activation — The agreed-upon hotline to report violations of the MoU will be a key test of whether the ceasefire can hold.
• NATO Summit in Ankara — Turkey has arrested over 200 activists ahead of the summit; the meeting will be a key test of transatlantic unity.
• Venezuela Earthquake Aftermath — The continued search for survivors and the scale of the humanitarian response will dominate headlines.
• UK Leadership Transition — Andy Burnham is expected to become Prime Minister; his defense investment plan and approach to the EU will be closely watched.
• EU-UK Trade Talks — The outcome of this week's discussions will set the tone for the post-Brexit relationship under a new UK PM.
• France's Presidential Election Campaign — The final 300-day countdown begins, with the political landscape becoming increasingly volatile.
• Sudan's El Obeid Siege — The RSF's attempt to capture the city could be a decisive moment in the civil war.
• Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Clashes — The risk of further escalation remains high after this week's airstrikes and retaliation.
• US Supreme Court Ruling on Campaign Finance — The court's latest decision is expected to further empower wealthy donors, with major implications for US politics.
• World Cup 2026 Knockout Stage — The tournament continues, with major matches and potential security incidents (e.g., heatwave, fan celebrations) to monitor.

Sources

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• Britain’s New ‘King’ Will Decide Its Fate — https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/30/andy-burnham-britain-prime-minister-labour/
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